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Despite playing the majority of the season without leading scorer and rebounder Trevor Mbakwe (14.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg), Minnesota is holding its own in the ultra-competitive Big Ten. The Gophers are averaging 70.2 ppg on typical shooting outputs of 48.1 percent overall and better than 70 percent from the foul line. They are also outworking the opposition on the glass (+3.7) while goading the same into more than 14 turnovers per outing. Rodney Williams (10.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and Julian Welch (10.6 ppg, 2.6 apg) are the only two active double-digit scorers for coach Tubby Smith's club, but there are six guys who average at least 6.0 ppg. Defensively, UM allows an average of 62.8 ppg, with foes shooting just 41.0 percent from the field. All five starters scored in double figures, led by freshman Joe Coleman's 16-point effort, as Minnesota blew the doors off Northwestern the last time out, winning by 23. Welch finished with a line of 14 points, six rebounds and five assists for the Gophers, who shot a sizzling 57.7 percent from the floor, despite missing nine of their 12 three-point attempts. The Wildcats were limited to 32.7 percent field goal efficiency, and they lost the battle on the boards by a 40-28 margin.
Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - SEC foes square off in Starkville tonight, as the LSU Tigers come calling on the 18th-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs. LSU is currently five games over .500 on the year (12-7), but the Tigers have lost three of their five league bouts, the most recent of which occurred this past Saturday at nationally-ranked Florida, 76-64. This game is the second of three in a row LSU will play against Top-25 competition, as next up for the Tigers is this Saturday's home clash with No. 1 Kentucky.
This game marks the 201st meeting all-time between LSU and MSU, with the Tigers clinging to a 104-96 advantage. The Bulldogs have won four of the last five meetings, although LSU has been victorious in two of the last three played in Starkville, including last year's 84-82 final.
Lubbock, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Still in search of their first Big 12 Conference win of the season, the Texas Tech Red Raiders give it another go tonight, although accomplishing the feat won't be easy as the 22nd-ranked Kansas State Wildcats are the opponent. Kansas State opened the year an impressive 11-1, but the start of Big 12 play didn't go quite the way head coach Frank Martin had hoped as the his team dropped three of its first four league bouts. The Wildcats have bounced back however, winning each of their last two, the most recent of which being a 66-58 decision at Oklahoma State on Saturday. The win snapped an 11-game losing streak to the Cowboys in Stillwater, and improved K-State to 14-4 overall, 3-3 in conference and 2-2 in true road games.
Texas Tech head coach Billy Gillispie had high hopes for his first year in Lubbock, but things haven't gone according to plan as his team is just 7-11 overall and has lost its first six Big 12 bouts -- the first time that has happened since the 1999-2000 campaign. The Red Raiders, who are 6-3 at home this season, haven't tasted victory since winning back-to-back games against Cal State Bakersfield and Southeastern Louisiana to close out the 2011 calendar year.
Robert Lewandowski scored 20 points and grabbed six rebounds, but he was the only Red Raider to reach double figures in what turned out to be a 76-52 loss to visiting Iowa State over the weekend. Texas Tech made good on only 35.1 percent of its total shots, missing 13-of-18 three-point tries along the way, and the team was guilty of 15 turnovers while also losing the rebounding battle, 40-32. The Cyclones controlled the paint to the tune of a 34-16 advantage, while they scored three times as many points off giveaways as did the Red Raiders (21-7). Offensive production has been the primary problem for Texas Tech this season, as the team is averaging just 63.3 ppg despite hitting 45 percent of its field goal attempts, and 36.8 percent of its long-range bombs. Defensively, Tech hasn't been all that bad, as foes are putting up 67.2 ppg behind shooting percentages that are worse than what it turns in (.409 overall, .322 three-point FG). Turnovers have plagued the Red Raiders, as they are guilty of 17 miscues per outing compared to 12.5 tpg for the opposition. Jordan Tolbert (12.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) is the only player currently averaging double digits in the scoring column for Texas Tech, and he is the team's leading rebounder as well.
At 18-3, the Rebels are off to their best start since 1991-92 when they finished 26-2.
As for the Broncos, this is their first season as members of the MWC, coming over from the Western Athletic Conference where they experienced their own share of success. Unfortunately, the transition has not gone all that well in the early going with BSU dropping the first three league bouts on the schedule, which means the Broncos are all alone at the bottom of the MWC standings.
The Rebels have won two of the previous three meetings in the series with Boise State, the most recent of those coming last season at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas by a score of 75-72. The lone win for the Broncos came in the first round of the 2004 NIT, 84-69, in Idaho.
Boise State hit a major lull in the second half against TCU, held without a field goal for more than 11 minutes, which is why the visitors coughed up a big lead and potentially their first win on the road. Derrick Marks was responsible for 13 points and eight rebounds to pace the Broncos in both categories, but he also logged six turnovers without benefit of a single assist. Thomas Bropleh chipped in 10 points off the bench, but not only did the Broncos lose a huge lead in the meeting with TCU, they might have lost guard Jeff Elorriaga for the remainder of the campaign after he fractured his thumb. Without Elorriaga in the lineup it means the Broncos will have to fill in for his 6.7 ppg which, while it is not all that overwhelming, it is still never easy to plug in a substitute this late in the season. But whatever happens with finding a replacement for Elorriaga, the Broncos must get more production out of Anthony Drmic who is the only double-digit scorer on the roster with his 13.1 ppg.
The Bluejays are off to a 18-2 start this season after handling Indiana State 75-49 on Saturday. The Bluejays shot 43.6 percent from the floor and connected on 11-of-24 attempts from long range in the contest. Head coach Greg McDermott has his team playing very well both at home and on the road this year. If the Bluejays win tonight, they will have won six-straight road games for the first time in program history since 1975. Creighton is ranked first in the nation in field goal percentage (51.4) and second in assists (19.2). The Bluejays 81.4 ppg on the offensive end is the best in the MVC this year.
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Teams that should be in: Stanford
Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.
Should be in:
Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.
| Southeastern Conference odds | |
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.
Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile. |
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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