Back to basics: Bruins seek a return to form versus Habs

Hockey Betting Lines

02/15/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After watching his team get shut out for the second time in three games, Claude Julien would like the Boston Bruins to get back to basics tonight when they visit the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre.

Boston has lost two of three and four of its last six games and was handed a 3-0 setback by Henrik Lundqvist and the New York Rangers on Tuesday.

The Bruins fired 42 shots at Lundqvist, including 18 in the third period, but they couldn't solve the Swedish netminder. Boston had also been shut out last Wednesday in a 6-0 rout in Buffalo before rebounding with Saturday's 4-3 shootout win over visiting Nashville.

Tuesday's loss dropped the Bruins nine points behind the Rangers for the top seed in the East. The defending Stanley Cup champions are still four points up on Ottawa for first place in the Northeast Division.

Boston is just 6-7-1 in its last 14 trips to the ice and Julien believes his team's recent struggles are a result of the Bruins getting away from what they do best.

"We're a checking team that scores. That's our identity," Julien said after Tuesday's loss. "We're a checking team that scores, but right now, we're not checking and we're not scoring."

Julien hopes Boston can find its physical game on the road, as the B's are kicking off a six-game road trip tonight. The Bruins have a solid 16-8-0 record as the guest this year.

While the Bruins fired a ton of shots at Lundqvist on Tuesday, Tim Thomas stopped just 17-of-20 shots for Boston.

"We certainly could have done more," Julien added. "They won more battles than we did tonight."

Tuukka Rask will likely get the start in net tonight, although he is 1-6-1 with a 2.76 goals-against average in nine career games against Montreal.

Tyler Seguin led Boston with seven shots on net on Tuesday, but he went without a point for the sixth time in seven games. Seguin, who has one goal over that stretch, is tied for the team lead with 20 goals this season.

Tonight's test marks the sixth and final scheduled meeting between the Habs and Bruins this year. Montreal took the first two encounters back in October, but Boston has won three straight since. The Bruins have still been handed losses in six of their last eight trips to Quebec.

The Canadiens will try to get back on track tonight after having a four-game winning streak halted by the visiting Carolina Hurricanes. Montreal had tied its longest hot streak of the season with the four consecutive victories, but the Habs squandered a 3-2 lead in the third period of Monday's test against the Hurricanes.

Eric Staal netted two goals and added an assist -- all in the third period -- to lift Carolina to the 5-3 decision at Bell Centre.

Tomas Plekanec, Erik Cole and David Desharnais scored and Carey Price made 30 saves in defeat for the Canadiens, who were trying to post five straight victories for the first time since March of last season.

Montreal is currently 12th in the Eastern Conference and is seven points out of a playoff spot.

The Canadiens are completing a brief two-game homestand tonight and are just 11-12-7 in Montreal this year.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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